The Fed’s favourite inflation measure hit a contemporary 40-year excessive

Energy costs soared in the first quarter on the back of the war in Ukraine, rising 33.9% for the year ended in March. Food prices rose 9.2% over the same period.

Stripping out food and energy costs, the PCE inflation measure rose 5.2%, a slightly slower pace than the 5.3% recorded in February. This index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, but the slight tick lower is unlikely to change the Fed’s policy path.

The central bank began to raise interest rates last month to get a handle on high inflation, and is expected to keep increasing rates all year. At next week’s highly anticipated policy meeting, the bank is expected to hike rates by a half-percentage point.

Economists are hopeful that inflation peaked in the first quarter — but only the April data could show any relief.

Looking at March alone, prices rose by 0.9%, more than in previous months, while core prices increased by 0.3%, flat from February and in line with economists’ expectations.

Americans are…

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